Theory of change worksheet

Complete the worksheet backward from the ultimate goal. At each step, be sure to record the assumptions explaining why it leads to the next change.

When to use this worksheet and what completion involves Fictional completed example

EvalCompass Worksheet

Theory of change worksheet

Method: Theory of Change

Complete the worksheet backward from the ultimate goal. At each step, be sure to record the assumptions explaining why it leads to the next change.

Basic information

Enter an overview of the program

Completed example for this section (fictional)

This fictional example is for explanation. Adapt it to your own program. Your entries will not change.

Program name: Confidential counseling accompaniment program (fictional)
Target community / area: Residents of area A who hesitate to seek counseling
Expected period: April 2026–March 2027
Prepared by and date prepared: Program officer and resident collaborator / April 1, 2026

Reason for this entry: Focus on barriers to counseling and define the period for examining outcomes.

Program name

Target community / area

Expected period

Prepared by and date prepared

Writing tips and explanation for this section

About this section

Enter an overview of the program

Focus on barriers to counseling and define the period for examining outcomes.

View the method explanation

Writing tips

Follow each field’s heading to record the program name, focus, period, and other details. Leave undecided matters clearly marked as unresolved.

Read the full fictional example

Ultimate goal

Describe the desired social conditions concretely within the program’s time horizon

Completed example for this section (fictional)

This fictional example is for explanation. Adapt it to your own program. Your entries will not change.

Residents can seek counseling without worrying that others will find out and can proceed with applications to needed schemes. Examine how reasons for foregoing counseling have changed after 1 year.

Reason for this entry: The goal distinguishes the existence of a scheme from ease of access.

Writing tips and explanation for this section

About this section

Describe the desired social conditions concretely within the program’s time horizon

The goal distinguishes the existence of a scheme from ease of access.

View the method explanation

Writing tips

Use the example as a reference and record what you have established about your own program. Distinguish assumptions and unchecked matters from confirmed facts.

Read the full fictional example

Outcome pathway (working backward)

Work backward from the ultimate goal and arrange intermediate outcomes along a timeline

Completed example for this section (fictional)

This fictional example is for explanation. Adapt it to your own program. Your entries will not change.

Scroll horizontally to view the table

Intermediate outcomes (short term)	Intermediate outcomes (medium term)	Long-term outcomes	Ultimate goal
Understand the explanation of confidentiality	Residents who wish to seek counseling apply	Proceed with applications to relevant schemes	Can connect with needed support when facing difficulties

Reason for this entry: Distinguish stages from service provision to changes in residents’ behavior.

Scroll horizontally to view the table

Intermediate outcomes (short term)	Intermediate outcomes (medium term)	Long-term outcomes	Ultimate goal

Writing tips and explanation for this section

About this section

Work backward from the ultimate goal and arrange intermediate outcomes along a timeline

Distinguish stages from service provision to changes in residents’ behavior.

View the method explanation

Writing tips

Keep the information in each row aligned. Scroll wide tables horizontally to see every column.

Read the full fictional example

Assumptions (conditions needed at each step)

For each arrow between outcomes, describe the assumptions needed for the link to hold

Completed example for this section (fictional)

This fictional example is for explanation. Adapt it to your own program. Your entries will not change.

Scroll horizontally to view the table

Assumption	Rationale and evidence	Verification method
Feeling that confidentiality is protected makes applying easier	A program design hypothesis; consultation with residents is still pending	Ask consenting non-users why they decided against counseling
The service can identify schemes suited to the individual	The fictional service procedure includes a step to check available schemes	Review ineligible and discontinued cases anonymously

Reason for this entry: Distinguish hypotheses from operating procedures as types of supporting rationale and decide where to test them.

Scroll horizontally to view the table

Assumption	Rationale and evidence	Verification method

Writing tips and explanation for this section

About this section

For each arrow between outcomes, describe the assumptions needed for the link to hold

Distinguish hypotheses from operating procedures as types of supporting rationale and decide where to test them.

View the method explanation

Writing tips

Keep the information in each row aligned. Scroll wide tables horizontally to see every column.

Read the full fictional example

Locate the intervention

Describe where your program acts on the pathway

Completed example for this section (fictional)

This fictional example is for explanation. Adapt it to your own program. Your entries will not change.

Explaining confidentiality and providing accompaniment support the stages from application to the first counseling session. Eligibility requirements and benefit amounts are outside this program’s direct control.

Reason for this entry: Identify conditions the program can change.

Writing tips and explanation for this section

About this section

Describe where your program acts on the pathway

Identify conditions the program can change.

View the method explanation

Writing tips

Use the example as a reference and record what you have established about your own program. Distinguish assumptions and unchecked matters from confirmed facts.

Read the full fictional example

Completion checklist

Completed example for this section (fictional)

This fictional example is for explanation. Adapt it to your own program. Your entries will not change.

☑ Checked: The ultimate goal is described concretely and measurably
☑ Checked: Assumptions are explicit for every arrow
☑ Checked: Methods for examining at least some assumptions are recorded
☐ Not checked: Beneficiary and community perspectives are reflected
☐ Not checked: Both the diagram and narrative are available

Reason for this entry: This draft still requires resident consultation and a finished diagram. Finalize the diagram and narrative after discussions in April 2026.

The ultimate goal is described concretely and measurably
Assumptions are explicit for every arrow
Methods for examining at least some assumptions are recorded
Beneficiary and community perspectives are reflected
Both the diagram and narrative are available

Writing tips and explanation for this section

About this section

This draft still requires resident consultation and a finished diagram. Finalize the diagram and narrative after discussions in April 2026.

View the method explanation

Writing tips

Read each item and check those you have confirmed. Do not use the fictional example’s checkbox states as findings about your own program.

Read the full fictional example

Before writing, check when to use the worksheet and what completion involves

Theory of change worksheet is a worksheet for applying Theory of Change in meetings or individual work. For the overall duration of the method, use “Illustrative estimate (adjust for scale and staffing): 1–3 days (including multiple workshops and documentation)” as a reference, adjusting for scale and resources. Fill in what you know provisionally and leave unresolved matters as questions to check next.

When this worksheet is useful

Designing or evaluating complex social change programs involving multiple agencies and communities
Explaining to stakeholders or funders why an approach is expected to be effective
Visualizing intermediate steps toward long-term change goals

Participants and preparation

Program designers, evaluation officers, key stakeholders and beneficiary representatives. An illustrative plan includes 1–2 facilitators plus 6–15 participants. Large programs use multiple workshops.

Bring the materials used for decisions, existing data, and differing stakeholder views to help complete the worksheet.

Suggested order

1. Basic informationEnter an overview of the program
2. Ultimate goalDescribe the desired social conditions concretely within the program’s time horizon
3. Outcome pathway (working backward)Work backward from the ultimate goal and arrange intermediate outcomes along a timeline
4. Assumptions (conditions needed at each step)For each arrow between outcomes, describe the assumptions needed for the link to hold
5. Locate the interventionDescribe where your program acts on the pathway
6. Completion checklist

Signs the worksheet is ready for review

Outcome pathway diagram
ToC narrative with a list of assumptions and supporting reasons
List of intermediate outcome indicators

Cautions for review

Focusing on how its name differs from a logic model without explaining reasons for change or assumptions. Prioritize users’ ability to examine hypotheses and evidence over the diagram’s name.
Creating a document that is shelved after completion and unused in evaluation or decision-making
Having specialist consultants prepare it alone, excluding frontline and beneficiary perspectives

Guides to read before starting

Read a completed fictional example (your entries will not change)

Fictional example; not actual results

A fictional community counseling program provides accompaniment for residents who hesitate to seek advice despite knowing about support schemes.

Basic information

Program name: Confidential counseling accompaniment program (fictional)
Target community / area: Residents of area A who hesitate to seek counseling
Expected period: April 2026–March 2027
Prepared by and date prepared: Program officer and resident collaborator / April 1, 2026

Reason for this entry: Focus on barriers to counseling and define the period for examining outcomes.

Ultimate goal

Residents can seek counseling without worrying that others will find out and can proceed with applications to needed schemes. Examine how reasons for foregoing counseling have changed after 1 year.

Reason for this entry: The goal distinguishes the existence of a scheme from ease of access.

Outcome pathway (working backward)

Scroll horizontally to view the table

Intermediate outcomes (short term)	Intermediate outcomes (medium term)	Long-term outcomes	Ultimate goal
Understand the explanation of confidentiality	Residents who wish to seek counseling apply	Proceed with applications to relevant schemes	Can connect with needed support when facing difficulties

Reason for this entry: Distinguish stages from service provision to changes in residents’ behavior.

Assumptions (conditions needed at each step)

Scroll horizontally to view the table

Assumption	Rationale and evidence	Verification method
Feeling that confidentiality is protected makes applying easier	A program design hypothesis; consultation with residents is still pending	Ask consenting non-users why they decided against counseling
The service can identify schemes suited to the individual	The fictional service procedure includes a step to check available schemes	Review ineligible and discontinued cases anonymously

Reason for this entry: Distinguish hypotheses from operating procedures as types of supporting rationale and decide where to test them.

Locate the intervention

Reason for this entry: Identify conditions the program can change.

Completion checklist

☑ Checked: The ultimate goal is described concretely and measurably
☑ Checked: Assumptions are explicit for every arrow
☑ Checked: Methods for examining at least some assumptions are recorded
☐ Not checked: Beneficiary and community perspectives are reflected
☐ Not checked: Both the diagram and narrative are available

Reason for this entry: This draft still requires resident consultation and a finished diagram. Finalize the diagram and narrative after discussions in April 2026.

Common errors in judgment

Treating a single arrow from long-term outcomes to current activities as sufficient

How to revise: Insert intermediate stages of requesting counseling, receiving counseling and applying for support, and record barriers at each stage

Reason: This specifies where activities act and the conditions under which they do not work.

Treating an explanation stakeholders find convincing as a theory with a proven causal effect

How to revise: Record agreed hypotheses separately from evidence actually verified

Reason: Even a convincing explanation can leave alternative causes and counterexamples unresolved.

Editorial and checking information

Content updated: 2026-09-13Source checked: 2026-09-13 (includes AI cross-checking)No documented human reviewIncludes fictional examplesEditorial policy and scope of checking Cite this page Report a correction

References and checked sections

Logic Model Development Guide
W.K. Kellogg Foundation · 2004
Section consulted
Chapter 3: Developing a Theory-of-Change Logic Model for Your Program, pp. 27–34
How it relates to the text
Developing a theory of change linking problems, contributing factors and assumptions to intervention strategies
Source checked: 2026-09-13 (includes AI cross-checking)

How to cite this page

EvalCompass Editorial Team. “Theory of change worksheet”. EvalCompass, updated 2026-09-13. https://evalcompass.jun-nakatani.com/en/worksheets/theory-of-change/

Add the date you accessed the page. Text created by this site is available under CC BY 4.0. Quotations, external materials, and bundled fonts have their own terms of use. When reusing content, credit the source, link to the license, and indicate any changes.

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Change history

2026-09-13 — Aligned definitions and treatment of assumptions with the sources and added fictional counseling pathways and completed examples for every section.