EvalCompassEvalCompass
Design & theoryTheory of changeBackward mappingAssumptionsLong-term changeSystems thinking

Theory of Change

Theory of Change
Also known as: ToC、Theory of change

A method for making explicit the desired change and the pathways and assumptions leading to it. It sets out, as testable hypotheses, why implementing activities is expected to produce outcomes. [1]

Theory of change worksheet — openRead the practical guideReferences and checked sections
Difficulty
Intermediate
Cost
Low
Duration
Illustrative estimate (adjust for scale and staffing): 1–3 days (including multiple workshops and documentation)
Content updated: 2026-09-13Source checked: 2026-09-13 (includes AI cross-checking)No documented human reviewIncludes fictional examples

How it works at a glance

A theory of change connects participants’ circumstances, intended outcomes and the reasons an intervention is expected to produce change. Diagrams and narratives communicate change pathways, allowing stakeholders’ views to be compared with available evidence. [1]

Working backward from the ultimate change clarifies necessary conditions, distinguishing the intervention’s role from its dependence on external factors. A completed diagram is not evidence that outcomes occurred; it is a hypothesis to examine and revise during implementation. [1]

Long-term goal (ultimate outcome)The society or conditions soughtIntermediate outcome AIntermediate outcome BIntermediate outcome CIntervention / activitiesWhat the program doesBackward mappingAssumptions: For each arrow, state the assumptions that must hold for the proposed link to work
Work backward from the ultimate goal, asking what would need to happen first. Map the pathway to change and state its assumptions.

When to use it and when it is unsuitable

When to use it

  • Designing or evaluating complex social change programs involving multiple agencies and communities
  • Explaining to stakeholders or funders why an approach is expected to be effective
  • Visualizing intermediate steps toward long-term change goals
  • Exploring deeper hypotheses about change when a logic model stops at activities and outputs

When it is unsuitable

  • If only activity schedules are being organized without considering why change occurs, prepare an implementation plan first.
  • Treating a pathway as unchangeable once agreed. Complex programs require updates as circumstances change.

Participants, roles, and deliverables

Participants and roles

Program designers, evaluation officers, key stakeholders and beneficiary representatives. An illustrative plan includes 1–2 facilitators plus 6–15 participants. Large programs use multiple workshops.

Main deliverables

  • Outcome pathway diagram
  • ToC narrative with a list of assumptions and supporting reasons
  • List of intermediate outcome indicators

Implementation steps

  1. Agree on the ultimate goal
    Confirm with stakeholders the intended change in participants’ circumstances and the period covered. Choose the number of years to reflect how quickly the program can produce change.
  2. Backward mapping
    Work backward from the ultimate goal, repeatedly asking what must change first for that goal to be achieved, and connect the intermediate outcomes.
  3. Make assumptions explicit
    List the assumptions required at each step. Make implicit assumptions explicit, such as “Trust already exists in this community.”
  4. Locate the intervention
    Identify where the intervention being designed (program or policy) acts along the outcome pathway, and document this as its rationale.
  5. Assign indicators
    Set indicators defining what would count as achievement for each intermediate outcome. Express them in measurable terms for subsequent use in an evaluation design matrix.
  6. Prepare the ToC narrative
    Attach a narrative explaining why change is expected along this pathway, in addition to the diagram. The complete product consists of both.
  7. Periodic review
    Use learning and evidence from implementation to revise assumptions and update pathways. A ToC is a living hypothesis rather than a fixed plan.

Strengths and limitations

Strengths

  • Improves evaluation questions by making causal hypotheses about why change occurs explicit
  • Makes program assumptions and limitations visible early and can reduce the risk of failure
  • Supports shared understanding in partnerships across agencies and sectors
  • Directly supports setting milestones for midterm evaluation by describing long-term change pathways

Limitations

  • Unless the detail of the diagram and its supporting rationale fits the purpose, preparation becomes burdensome. Small programs can begin with their main pathways and assumptions.
  • Too many assumptions can produce a complex diagram that is impractical to use
  • Risks oversimplifying complex social change and allowing the model to steer reality

Common pitfalls

  • Focusing on how its name differs from a logic model without explaining reasons for change or assumptions. Prioritize users’ ability to examine hypotheses and evidence over the diagram’s name.
  • Creating a document that is shelved after completion and unused in evaluation or decision-making
  • Having specialist consultants prepare it alone, excluding frontline and beneficiary perspectives
  • Proceeding without treating assumptions as risks or testing them

Conditions of use and evidence

  • Assumptions are not merely listed; they are examined against current conditions, relevant experience and evidence. [1]
Fictional example; not actual results

Considering pathways for people who cannot access counseling

A fictional community counseling program provides accompaniment for residents who hesitate to seek advice despite knowing about support schemes.

Change pathwayConditions neededWhat to examine
Learn about accompaniment → apply for counselingFeel that neighbors will not learn what was discussedWhy non-users do not apply
Receive counseling → proceed with applications to relevant schemesAn available scheme exists and the person can manage the application processCases of ineligibility and reasons for discontinuing applications

Common errors in judgment

Common mistake

Treating a single arrow from long-term outcomes to current activities as sufficient

How to revise

Insert intermediate stages of requesting counseling, receiving counseling and applying for support, and record barriers at each stage

ReasonThis specifies where activities act and the conditions under which they do not work.

Common mistake

Treating an explanation stakeholders find convincing as a theory with a proven causal effect

How to revise

Record agreed hypotheses separately from evidence actually verified

ReasonEven a convincing explanation can leave alternative causes and counterexamples unresolved.

Organize your thinking by writing

Theory of change worksheet

A practical template is available to fill in and print on A4 paper.

Open worksheet

Related practical guides

What is a logic model?Theory of changeOutputs and outcomesWhat is an outcome?

Related methods

Logic ModelLogical Framework (Logframe / LFA)Key Evaluation QuestionsDevelopmental Evaluation

References and checked sections

  1. Logic Model Development Guide
    W.K. Kellogg Foundation · 2004
    Section consulted
    Chapter 3: Developing a Theory-of-Change Logic Model for Your Program, pp. 27–34
    How it relates to the text
    Developing a theory of change linking problems, contributing factors and assumptions to intervention strategies
    Source checked: (includes AI cross-checking)

Editorial and checking information

Content updated: Source checked: (includes AI cross-checking)No documented human reviewIncludes fictional examplesEditorial policy and scope of checkingCite this pageReport a correction

How to cite this page

EvalCompass Editorial Team. “Theory of Change”. EvalCompass, updated 2026-09-13. https://evalcompass.jun-nakatani.com/en/methods/theory-of-change/
Add the date you accessed the page. Text created by this site is available under CC BY 4.0. Quotations, external materials, and bundled fonts have their own terms of use. When reusing content, credit the source, link to the license, and indicate any changes.

Suggest a correction or improvement to this page

Change history
  • — Aligned definitions and treatment of assumptions with the sources and added fictional counseling pathways and completed examples for every section.